INTERNATIONAL BURCH UNIVERSITY
Graduate Study - Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences
(3+2) Management Master With Thesis
2011-2012

SYLLABUS
Code Name Level Year Semester
Status Number of ECTS Credits Class Hours Per Week Total Hours Per Semester Language
7.5 124 English

 Instructor Assistant Coordinator Ali GÖKSU, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ali GÖKSU, Assoc. Prof. Dr. [email protected] no email

COURSE OBJECTIVE
Decision theory provides a formal framework for making logical choices in the face of uncertainty. Given a set of alternatives, a set of consequences, and a correspondence between those sets, decision theory offers conceptually simple procedures for choice. This course presents an overview of the fundamental concepts and outcomes of rational decision making under uncertainty, highlighting the implications for statistical practice.

 Provides a rich collection of techniques and procedures.
 Discusses the foundational aspects and modern day practice.
 Links foundations to practical applications in economics.
 Presents different perspectives and controversies to encourage students to form their own opinion of decision making and statistics.

COURSE CONTENT
Week
Topic
1. Basic Concepts
2. Decision Making Under Uncertainty
3. Decision Trees
4. Multi Criteria Decision Making
5. Analytic Hierarchy Process
6. Analytic Hierarchy Process
7. Analytic Network Process
8. TOPSIS Method
9. Fuzzy Logic, Fuzzy AHP
10. Fuzzy TOPSIS
11. Forecasting and Time Series
12. Forecasting and Time Series
13. Goal Programming
14. Paper Presentation

LABORATORY/PRACTICE PLAN
Week
Topic

TEACHING/ASSESSMENT
Description
• Lectures
• Practical Sessions
• Excersises
• Presentation
• Project
• Assignments
• Case Studies
Description (%)
Method Quantity Percentage (%)
Homework5
Midterm Exam(s)30
Presentation5
Term Paper10
Final Exam150
Total: 100
Learning outcomes
• Describe the steps of the decision-making process and different types of decision-making environments.
• Make decisions under uncertainty when probability values are not known. Make decisions under risk when probability values are known.
• Use Excel to set up and solve problems involving decision tables. Develop accurate and useful decision trees.
• Revise probability estimates using Bayesian analysis.
• Understand the importance and use of utility theory in decision making.
TEXTBOOK(S)
• Winston, W. Operations Research : Applications and Algorithms , fourth edition (2004) 4th ed. Thomson / Brooks-Cole., ISBN 0-534-42362-0.

ECTS (Allocated based on student) WORKLOAD
Activities Quantity Duration (Hour) Total Work Load
Lecture (14 weeks x Lecture hours per week)16348
Laboratory / Practice (14 weeks x Laboratory/Practice hours per week)16116
Midterm Examination (1 week)12020
Final Examination(1 week)13030
Preparation for Midterm Examination11010
Preparation for Final Examination7.50